Grammy Awards 2025: Predicting who wins in the Rap categories

Rap is here to stay.

2024 Governors Ball
2024 Governors Ball | Astrida Valigorsky/GettyImages

“Rapper’s Delight” cracked the Billboard Top 40 in 1979, and just a decade later, the Recording Academy got around to creating an award for Rap. That is not dragging your feet. It’s just being cautious. Rap could have faded into the ether, like disco.

Just because Blondie scored a major hit with “Rapture” in 1980, and groundbreaking work from Afrika Bambaataa, LL Cool J, Run-DMC, NWA, and Public Enemy changed the cultural landscape throughout the whole of the 1980s, you still can’t be too careful with things like this.

Fortunately, the Academy came to its senses in time for DJ Jazzy Jeffy and the artist now known as Will Smith to win the first Grammy for Rap Performance in 1989 for “Parents Just Don’t Understand.”  The powers-that-be did not deem it worthy of being presented during the televised portion of the award show, so the Fresh Prince was not in the house that night.

Predicting who will win the Rap awards at the 2025 Grammys

Today, Rap music is part of the R&B, Rap, and Spoken Word Poetry section of the Grammys. There are four awards designated specifically for Rap music, and it has, of course, become a significant presence in the General field recognizing music across all genres.

Let’s take a quick look at those four Rap fields and predict who might take home the 2025 Grammys for Rap music.

Rap Performance

This is the oldest award, and it has remained mostly unchanged since DJ Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince claimed the first one back in ’89. This year, there are seven nominees. I know there’s a reason for this. I just don’t feel like looking it up. The Grammys simply change the rules whenever they feel like it and I have found it best to just roll with it.

The nominees this year boast two artists who have won double-digit Grammys and another who has never been nominated. And I suspect the award is going to come down to a showdown between two of those three performers.

First, here’s who I don’t think will win. Defending champ Future, who teamed with Killer Mike, Andre 3000, and Eryn Allen Kane to win with “Scientists & Engineers” in 2024, probably won't repeat. Grand old man Eminem – I don’t think so. Cardi B was the first solo female to win Rap Album in 2019. So far, it has been her only win. She doesn’t get her second Grammy in this category.

GloRilla did a nice performance of her nominated single “Yeah Glo!” on SNL a few weeks ago but it won’t win the Grammy. Nor will Common repeat his 2008 win (back when it was called by a different name – don’t get me started on that…).

Which leaves two. The newcomer, Doechii, who is nominated for “Nissan Altima.” And one of the modern titans, Kendrick Lamar, for “Not Like Us.” This would seem to be an easy win for Kendrick. “Not Like Us” was a knockout blow in his running feud with Drake. It was a monster hit and a superb production. But don’t overlook Doechii. She’s up for Best New Artist and …well, I’ll save the rest for a few minutes. This year’s winner for Rap Performance is “Not Like Us.”

Melodic Rap Performance

Back in 2002, the Grammys introduced a new category called Rap/Sung Collaboration. Eve claimed that prize for “Let Me Blow Ya Mind,” with a vocal assist from Gwen Stefani. The award is now called Best Melodic Rap Performance, and the five nominees feature some of the hottest young artists in hip-hop.

That includes 25-year-old Adetunji, the Irish rapper who borrowed R&B singer Kehlani for his song called …. get this … “Kehlani.” And 26-year-old Latto, who was nominated for Best New Artist a couple of years ago for the shape-shifting “Big Mama.”

Rapsody has been around a bit longer, which makes her opening line of “3:AM,” – “You make me feel like a virgin” – an arresting statement.  The jazzy tune features multiple Grammy winner Erykah Badu. Future and Metro Boomin’ swapped out Kendrick Lamar, who appears on their Best Rap Performance nominee, for the Weeknd on “We Still Don’t Trust You” in the Melodic category.

I suppose any of them could win, but I’m not going to bet against the fifth nominee because she has won more Grammys than anyone in the history of Grammys. I think it’s up to seventy-five thousand now. Or maybe 32. I forget. Anyway, Beyonce has won across multiple genres, including Rap, and I think teaming up with 83-year-old Linda Martell and 29-year-old Shaboozey on “Spaghetti” gets her one more.  

Rap Song

Eminem won the first Grammy for Best Rap Song in 2004. It was “Lose Yourself,” still on the shortlist of the greatest rap singles ever recorded. He didn’t get nominated in this category this year, but we’re not quite done with Slim Shady yet.

Rapsody and GloRilla are both up for Song. So is another titan, Kanye West, whose collab with Ty Dolla Sign on “Carnival” earned Kanye his 76th nomination all time. He won this award a few years back for “Jail.”

But I’m sticking with Kendrick. “Not Like Us” sweeps Performance and Song.

Rap Album

“Not Like Us” was a single. It was not included on GNX and it kind of overshadowed the album. Whether that’s the reason or not, GNX didn’t get nominated for Album. Future, Common, and Eminem all did. So did J. Cole. They are all multi-Grammy-winning artists.

This year, they all lose out to a rookie. (At least in terms of Grammy nominations). Doechii’s Alligator Bites Never Heal adds its name to the list of Rap Album winners began way back in 1996 with Naughty by Nature’s Poverty’s Paradise. Check back in a few days to see if she can add the Best New Artist trophy to her collection.

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