The future of rock and roll will be determined on February 2. Grammy voters have a chance to definitively state that the most esteemed genre in modern popular music is not merely a museum piece. That it still has glory days in its present and future.
It will be a test to see if all those boastful memes that fill up social media from feisty boomers about how there has not been a decent rock song recorded since 1972 are just bluster or whether they are, in fact, reality.
I fear the Recording Academy may fail the test.
Who will win in the Rock categories at the 2025 Grammy Awards?
I say this as a feisty boomer myself. The 67th annual Grammy Awards could once and for all kill rock and roll, and it would be quite a shame if that were to happen.
Rock, Metal & Alternative Music is Field 2 in Grammy nomenclature, coming right on the heels of the General Field and Pop/Dance. There are six categories. In Grammys’ ever-bewildering arrangement of divisions, “rock” gets awards for performance, album, and song, while “alternative” gets one for performance and album. “Metal” only gets a nod for performance. Apparently, metal still doesn’t rate enough to get its own album recognition.
And don’t get me started on what makes something “rock” versus “alternative.” (And I say, “Don’t get me started,” not because I’ll go on and on about it, but because I actually have no clue and will have to admit Grammy logic has defeated me.)
So, with the future of music on the line, let’s do some predicting.
Rock Performance
The battle lines are drawn. This category pits three bands formed within the last 20 years and three formed more than 30 years ago. To me, there is an overwhelmingly obvious best choice.
That song is not “Dark Matter,” a fairly typical Pearl Jam track from their album of the same name. Nothing wrong with the song. It’s just not award-winning worthy. Nor is it “Gift Horse,” a fine grinder from Bristol rockers Idles, who represent the younger end of this particular spectrum.
The Black Keys’ “Beautiful People (Stay High)” sounds more like what I think of as “alt,” but … don’t get me started. (I’ll stop saying that. Promise.) Anyway, it doesn’t feel like a “rock” performance winner to me. “The American Dream is Killing Me” by Green Day does feel like a winner, and I suppose it has an outside chance. The fact that it would have been at home on 20-year-old American Idiot wouldn’t really signal the death of rock & roll, but there is a better choice.
That choice is St. Vincent’s “Broken Man.” “Broken Man” is rock & roll and it’s new – or as close to new as rock & roll is likely to get. I mean, after all, there’s nothing truly new in rock & roll, is there? But if rock & roll has a future, Annie Clark’s St. Vincent project takes this prize.
However, if you believe betting lines, it will fall to a song originally recorded before many of us were alive. I love the Beatles. I marvel at whatever technical wizardry was needed to release a new single – “Now and Then” – decades after the band called it quits. But to claim that “Now and Then” somehow represents the “best” rock performance of 2024 is the clearest possible statement that rock & roll has gone the way of Gregorian chants and opera. It’s a museum piece.
If you are ranking all Beatles songs, “Now and Then” comes in somewhere between 90 and 110. (That’s unofficial, mind you.) And if the 90th-best Beatles song is better than the best rock performances of 2024, rock & roll is done.
I realize the Beatles are likely to win this, but I am keeping hope alive. I’m predicting “Broken Man.”
Metal Performance
Grammy’s one nod specifically to metal features war horses and relative newcomers, just like the rock performance category. And I think it may come down to a similar battle between old and new. I would not mind Metallica winning for “Screaming Suicide” nearly as much as I’d be bothered by a Beatles win.
After all, Metallica is still a functioning rock band. They won this very award last year for “72 Seasons,” and are the dominant figure in this category, having claimed seven Metal Performance Grammys already.
I would be more bothered by an even older act, Judas Priest, winning for “Crown of Horns,” even though I think it’s a pretty good song. Just not one of their best. And I’d be surprised if Canadian progressive metal screamers Spiritbox took the prize for “Cellar Door.”
Gojira’s “Mea Culpa” is a very cool song that would be very worthy, but I don’t think it wins either. The only song that I think can derail Metallica is “Suffocate” by hardcore Kentuckians Knocked Loose. In a show of gender equity not often found in metal, they get a great boost from Poppy. This is modern metal, and it’s highly arresting. I just don’t think it’s enough to keep “Screaming Suicide” from claiming Metallica’s 10th overall Grammy.
Alternative Performance
Alternative is just plain weird. I think they kind of like it that way. In the performance category, we also have nods to old veterans, Kim Gordon and Nick Cave. But in these cases, it doesn’t feel quite as much like clinging to the past because they have never gotten recognition from the Grammys despite decades of important work.
I don’t think Cave has much of a chance here, but Gordon does. It would be quite a surprise but it would make a lot of older punk and hardcore fans happy because her work with Sonic Youth is largely underappreciated today.
This category is often as much debated for its snubs as for its nominees. Beth Gibbons could have been here for Lives Outgrown. Like Gordon, the work she did with her better-known band Portishead has been mostly ignored by the award-givers. Similarly, there could have been noms for Hozier (“Too Sweet”) or anything from Vampire Weekend. But there are not.
I doubt Cage the Elephant has a legit chance here, but the other two contenders, Fontaines D.C. and another St. Vincent song, definitely do. I’m really not sure why St. Vincent’s “Flea” is alt but her “Broken Man” is rock. “Flea” would be my personal choice. But since I am already picking “Broken Man” in the Rock category, I’ll go with Fontaines D.C.’s “Starburster” here.
Rock Album
We’ve got seven nominees here so let’s be quick. Black Crowes and Idles – big longshots. Pearl Jam and Jack White – they’d make some fans very happy, and I personally think Jack White should get major consideration. But also long shots. Just not quite as long.
That leaves one young, one middle-aged, and one old band competing for the Grammy. Saviors is a quality Green Day album, marked by a great tour this year. If Grammy voters are torn between old and new, it could win. The “new” is Fontaines D.C's Romance. The old is Hackneyed Diamonds by the Rolling Stones.
I will keep personal feelings out of this. I am on record as saying the Stones album is good, but far from great. That may be good enough this year. A win for Hackneyed Diamonds won’t be quite as big a death knell for rock & roll as a Beatles win because, quite frankly, Hackneyed Diamonds is simply a better piece of rock than “Now and Then.” But it won’t be a good look. I may not want it to win, but I think the Stones will take the prize this year.
Alternative Album
Nick Cave and Kim Gordon double up on their Alt Performance nominations. Brittany Howard and Clairo both expand the parameters of Alternative, which is always a good thing. The fact that neither secured an Alt Performance nomination makes them unlikely winners.
That leaves the door open for St. Vincent, the only artist nominated in four of the six categories in this Field for her album All Born Screaming. It will and should win.
Rock Song
At the risk of sounding redundant, I am again picking St. Vincent’s “Broken Man” here. Old favorites like Green Day and Pearl Jam always have a shot in this kind of competition. For the record, if anyone is going to spoil Annie Clark’s coming out party, I suspect it will be Green Day’s “Dilemma.”
But I think St. Vincent – with some help from the likes of Fontaines D.C. and Idles – will save rock & roll from the dusty halls of the museum.