The Big Four is now the Big Six at the Grammy Awards. Actually, last year, we should have been calling it the Big Five, but who knew? And this year, there’s a new category, making – check my math on this – the Big Six. Got it?
Why are these the Big Six? Because they are in what the Recording Academy refers to as the “General Field.” That means they are not genre-specific. Anyone can win. Except they can’t because two of the fields contain an exclusion in their very name. So anyone can win these awards, except when they can’t. Got it?
I’m glad that’s out of the way.
Who will win in the Big Six cetagories for the 2025 Grammy Awards?
The traditional Big Four are for Record, Album, and Song of the Year, and for Best New Artist. Last year, the long-standing award for Producer of the Year, Non-Classical (see the exclusion? was moved into the General Field as well, and this year, the newly established Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical joined it.
So that’s the Big Six. Got it.
It’s a very competitive field this year, but that won’t stop us from putting some predictions in writing. Let’s start with the new kid on the block.
Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical
This is a lovely idea. Recognize the non-performing writers who are so integral to popular music. The winner of last year’s Best New Artist award, Victoria Monet, would have been a prime candidate for this honor had it existed prior to 2025. She had a long career as an outstanding writer for others. Had this award been around last year, Monet might not have been deemed eligible because of her success as a recording artist in her own right, but that’s neither here nor there.
Except this scenario seems to be playing out this year as well. British songwriter RAYE has become a bona fide performer this year, as attested to by her nomination in the New Artist category. So she probably should not be winning this songwriting award, right?
Latin pop writer Edgar Barerra and a couple of country writers – Jessi Alexander and Jessie Jo Dillon – are also nominated, but the battle will probably be between RAYE and pop songwriter Amy Allen, who co-wrote major hits for Sabrina Carpenter, as well as songs for many others stars. Based on my understanding of the award’s purpose, Adams should win. But this is the Grammys. I am predicting the win for RAYE.
Producer of the Year, Non-Classical
Well, Jack Antonoff is riding a three-year streak. Babyface is the only other producer (non-classical) to pull that off. So I’ll pick Antanoff.
Only… he wasn’t nominated this year. After picking my jaw up off the floor, I got around to looking at who was nominated, and the winner seemed like a lock. No disrespect to Alissia, D’Mile, Ian Fitchuk, or Mustard, but Daniel Nigro probably should have won this last year, and without Taylor Swift’s producer in the running in ’25, he is as close to a sure thing as you are apt to find. Nigro’s work with Olivia Rodrigo and Chappell Roan has defined modern pop music over the past several years.
New Artist
There are plenty of intriguing nominees, including rapper Doechii and country sensation Shaboozey, but this seems to come down to a one-on-one showdown between two of the biggest pop artists of the year.
Earlier, I was leaning toward Chappell Roan. But I have changed my mind, and I’d like to believe it has nothing to do with my complete annoyance with having to reverse autocorrect, which keeps wanting her to be Chappell Road. I just think the tide is rising behind Sabrina Carpenter.
Song
This is the songwriters award, distinguished from the production award we will be getting to shortly. Five of the eight nominees for Song are also nominated for Record of the Year. That sometimes can provide a hint as to what will win, but not always.
But I will rather arbitrarily use that logic to eliminate Carpenter’s “Please Please Please,” and the Lady Gaga/Bruno Mars collab “Die With a Smile.” Taylor Swift is in this category, but I don’t think this is her year either. Kendrick Lamar is here, but a rap song hasn’t taken this prize since Donald Glover’s “This is America” back in 2019.
This has been a pop award for the past several years and this year, several pop titans are battling it out. One of them is “Birds of a Feather,” and it takes a lot to bet against Billie Eilish and Finneas when a Grammy for songwriting is up for grabs. They win.
Album
No nomination for Antonoff as producer means that perhaps Taylor Swift’s lock on this award may finally be coming to an end. There are plenty of worthy contenders. Charli XCX’s Brat would be my personal choice.
But this year, everything is lined up for the Queen of the Grammys, Beyonce, to finally claim the Best Album for her sprawling, groundbreaking Cowboy Carter. The CMAs didn’t even nominate it, and if you read my earlier predictions, I don’t even have it winning Best Country Album. But it is richly deserving of Album of the Year.
Record
How big an upset is it for an artist who has already won 17 Grammys to take Record of the Year? In a recent past dominated by female pop stars, could a rapper claim the final prize? Billie Eilish, Beyonce, Taylor Swift, Sabrina Carpenter, and Chappell Roan are all in this category. And I think this year, they might kinda sorta cancel each other out, opening the door for Kendrick Lamar and his devastating dis track “Not Like Us” to win the prize.
If I’m remembering right, it would be Lamar’s first Grammy outside the Rap field.
That concludes this year’s predictions. As I said at the start of the series, if you need help picking the Best New Age, Ambient, or Chant Album, I can’t help you. (though you know the old saying – never bet against Ricky Kej.)